Lowest Mortgage Rates in History: What It Means for Homeowners and Buyers

In July, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell below 3% for the first time in history.1 And while many Americans have rushed to take advantage of this unprecedented opportunity, others question the hype. Are today’s rates truly a bargain?

While average mortgage rates have drifted between 4% and 5% in recent years, they haven’t always been so low. Freddie Mac began tracking 30-year mortgage rates in 1971. At that time, the national average was 7.31%.2 As the rate of inflation started to rise in the mid-1970s, mortgage rates surged. It’s hard to imagine now, but the average U.S. mortgage rate reached a high of 18.63% in 1981.3

Fortunately for home buyers, inflation normalized by October 1982, which sent mortgage rates on a downward trajectory that would bring them as low as 3.31% in 2012.3 Since 2012, 30-year fixed rates have risen modestly, with the daily average climbing as high as 4.94% in 2018.4

So what’s causing today’s rates to sink to unprecedented lows? Economic uncertainty.

Mortgage rates generally follow bond yields, because the majority of U.S. mortgages are packaged together and sold as bonds. As the coronavirus pandemic continues to dampen the economy and inject volatility into the stock market, a growing number of investors are shifting their money into low-risk bonds. Increased demand has driven bond yields—and mortgage rates—down.5

However, according to National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “the number one driver of low mortgage rates is the accommodating Federal Reserve stance to keep interest rates low and to buy up mortgage-backed securities.” According to Yun, “we will see mortgage rates stay near this level for the next 18 months because of the significance of the Fed’s stance.”6

HOW DO LOW MORTGAGE RATES BENEFIT CURRENT HOMEOWNERS?

Low mortgage rates increase buyer demand, which is good news for sellers. But what if you don’t have any plans to sell your home? Can current homeowners benefit from falling mortgage rates? Yes, they can!

A growing number of homeowners are capitalizing on today’s rock-bottom rates by refinancing their existing mortgages. In fact, refinance applications have surged over the past few months—and for a good reason.7 Reduced interest rates can save homeowners a bundle on both monthly payments and total payments over the lifetime of a mortgage.

The chart below illustrates the potential savings when you decrease your mortgage rate by just one percentage point. When it comes to refinancing, the bigger the spread, the greater the savings.

Estimated Monthly Payment On a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

Loan Amount 4.0% 3.0% Monthly Savings Savings Over 30 Years
$100,000 $477 $422 $55 $20,093
$200,000 $955 $843 $112 $40,184
$300,000 $1,432 $1,265 $167 $60,277
$400,000 $1,910 $1,686 $224 $80,368
$500,000 $2,387 $2,108 $279 $100,461

 

Be sure to factor in any prepayment penalties on your current mortgage and closing costs for your new mortgage. For a refinance, expect to pay between 2% to 5% of your loan amount.8 You can divide your closing costs by your monthly savings to find out how long it will take to recoup your investment, or use an online refinance calculator. For a more precise calculation of your potential savings, we’d be happy to connect you with a mortgage professional in our network who can help you decide if refinancing is a good option for you.

HOW DO LOW MORTGAGE RATES BENEFIT HOME BUYERS?

We’ve already shown how low rates can save you money on your mortgage payments. But they can also give a boost to your budget by increasing your purchasing power. For example, imagine you have a budget of $1,500 to put toward your monthly mortgage payment. If you take out a 30-year mortgage at 5.0%, you can afford a loan of $279,000.

Now let’s assume the mortgage rate falls to 4.0%. At that rate, you can afford to borrow $314,000 while still keeping the same $1,500 monthly payment. That’s a budget increase of $35,000!

If the rate falls even further to 3.0%, you can afford to borrow $355,000 and still pay the same $1,500 each month. That’s $76,000 over your original budget! All because the interest rate fell by two percentage points. If you’ve been priced out of the market before, today’s low rates may put you in a better position to afford your dream home.

On the other hand, rising mortgages rates will erode your purchasing power. Wait to buy, and you may have to settle for a smaller home in a less-desirable neighborhood. So if you’re planning to move, don’t miss out on the phenomenal discount you can get with today’s historically-low rates.

HOW LOW COULD MORTGAGE RATES GO?

No one can say with certainty how low mortgage rates will fall or when they will rise again. A lot will depend on the trajectory of the pandemic and subsequent economic impact.

Forecasters at Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association predict 30-year mortgage rates will average 3.2% and 3.5% respectively in 2021.9,10 However, economists at Fannie Mae expect them to dip even lower to an average of 2.8% next year.11

Still, many experts agree that those who wait to take advantage of these unprecedented rates could miss out on the deal of a lifetime. “With rates now at all-time historic lows, it’s hard to imagine that people may be holding out for something even better,” warns Paul Buege, president and COO of Inlanta Mortgage.12 Positive news about a vaccine or a faster-than-expected economic recovery could send rates back up to pre-pandemic levels.

HOW CAN I SECURE THE BEST AVAILABLE MORTGAGE RATE?

While the average 30-year mortgage rate is hovering around 3%, you can do a quick search online and find advertised rates that are even lower. But these ultra-low mortgages are typically reserved for only prime borrowers. So what steps can you take to secure the lowest possible rate?

Consider a 15-Year Mortgage Term

Lock in an even lower rate by opting for a 15-year mortgage. If you can afford the higher monthly payment, a shorter mortgage term can save you a bundle in interest, and you’ll pay off your home in half the time.13

Give Your Credit Score a Boost

The economic downturn has made lenders more cautious. These days, you’ll probably need a credit score of at least 740 to secure their lowest rates.14 While there’s no fast fix for bad credit, you can take steps to help your score before you apply for a loan:15

  • Dispute inaccuracies on your credit report.
  • Pay your bills on time, and catch up on any missed payments.
  • Hold off on applying for new credit.
  • Pay off debt, and keep balances low on your credit cards.
  • Don’t close unused credit cards (unless they’re charging you an annual fee).

Make a Large Down Payment

The more equity you have in a home, the less likely you are to default on your mortgage. That’s why lenders offer better rates to borrowers who make a sizable down payment. Plus, if you put down at least 20%, you can avoid paying for private mortgage insurance.

Pay for Points

Discount points are fees paid to the mortgage company in exchange for a lower interest rate. At a cost of 1% of the loan amount, they aren’t cheap. But the investment can pay off over the long-term in interest savings.

Shop Around

Rates, terms, and fees can vary widely amongst mortgage providers, so do your homework. Contact several lenders to find out which one is willing to offer you the best overall deal. But be sure to complete the process within 45 days—or else the credit inquiries by multiple mortgage companies could have a negative impact on your credit score.16

READY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOWEST MORTGAGE RATES IN HISTORY?

Mortgage rates have never been this low. Don’t miss out on your chance to lock in a great rate on a new home or refinance your existing mortgage. Either way, we can help.

We’d be happy to connect you with the most trusted mortgage professionals in our network. And if you’re ready to start shopping for a new home, we’d love to assist you with your search—all at no cost to you! Contact us today to schedule a free consultation.

 

The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial advice. Consult a financial professional for advice regarding your individual needs.

Sources:

  1. CNN Business –
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/success/30-year-mortgage-rates-record-low/index.html
  2. Freddie Mac –
    http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html)
  3. Value Penguin –
    https://www.valuepenguin.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates
  4. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis –
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh
  5. Bankrate –
    https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/how-interest-rates-are-set/
  6. Washington Post –
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/25/mortgage-rate-remains-historic-low/
  7. Yahoo! Finance –
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-refinancing-makes-big-comeback-151500346.html
  8. Bankrate –
    https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/is-no-closing-cost-for-you/
  9. Freddie Mac June 2020 Quarterly Forecast –
    http://www.freddiemac.com/fmac-resources/research/pdf/202006-Forecast.pdf
  10. Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Market Forecast July 15, 2020 –
    https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-and-commentary
  11. Fannie Mae July 2020 Housing Forecast –
    https://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_071420.pdf
  12. Washington Post –
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/25/mortgage-rate-remains-historic-low/
  13. Investopedia –
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/042015/comparison-30year-vs-15year-mortgage.asp
  14. Money –
    https://money.com/mortgage-rates-below-three-percent/
  15. Experian –
    https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/credit-education/improving-credit/improve-credit-score/
  16. Equifax –
    https://www.equifax.com/personal/education/credit/report/understanding-hard-inquiries-on-your-credit-report/

National Snapshot: What’s Ahead for Real Estate

The U.S. unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, and consumer confidence remains high. In fact, the University of Michigan’s latest Surveys of Consumers found that Americans have their most positive personal finance outlook since 2003.1

However, if you follow national news, you’ve probably heard speculation that we could be headed toward a recession. Global trade tensions and a slow down in the GDP growth rate has sparked volatility in the stock market, leading to economic uncertainty.

Given these differing signals, you may be wondering: How has the U.S. housing market been impacted? Where is it headed? And more importantly … what does it mean for me?

MORTGAGE RATES ARE NEAR HISTORIC LOWS

In August, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit its lowest level since November 2016, falling to 3.6%, down a full percentage point from a year earlier.2 Variable mortgage rates also fell when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the end of July for the first time since 2008.3

This was welcome news for many in the real estate industry. Freddie Mac predicts that low interest rates and a robust job market will help the housing market remain strong despite the threat of recession.

“There is a tug of war in the financial markets between weaker business sentiment and consumer sentiment,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Business sentiment is declining on negative trade and manufacturing headlines, but consumer sentiment remains buoyed by a strong labor market and low rates that will continue to drive home sales into the fall.”2

What does it mean for you?

If you’re looking to buy a home, now is a great time to lock in a low mortgage rate. It will shrink your monthly payment and could save you a bundle over the long term. Or if you plan to stay in your current home for a while, consider whether it makes sense to refinance your mortgage at today’s lower rates.

PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE AT A MODEST PACE

According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, housing prices continue to rise. But the rate at which prices are rising is slowing down. For May 2019, the National Home Price Index rose by 3.4%, down from 3.5% the previous month.4

Of course, national averages often don’t present the whole picture. Some markets have seen modest declines, while other areas are witnessing double-digit increases. The key differentiating factor in most cases? Housing affordability.5

Since 2012, home prices have increased at about three times the pace of wages, according to National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun.6

“Housing unaffordability will hinder sales irrespective of the local job market conditions,” said Yun. “This is evident in the very expensive markets as home prices are either topping off or slightly falling.”5

But what about all this talk of a recession? Will we see housing values plummet like they did in 2008? Economists say no.

If we look at history, the real estate crash experienced during the Great Recession isn’t typical.

The recent Housing and Mortgage Market Review report from Arch Mortgage Insurance provides data to support this. “What we found is that the next recession is likely to be far less severe on the housing market than the last one. It’s not that this time is different; it’s that last time was really different from historic norms.”6

“A large decline in national home prices is unlikely in the next recession,” Arch economists write. “A persistent housing shortage should help cushion home price declines.”6

What does it mean for you?

If you have the ability and desire to buy a home now, don’t let the threat of a recession hold you in limbo. The market is cyclical, and it will experience ups and downs. But over the long term, real estate has consistently proven to be a good investment.

 

 

STARTER INVENTORY REMAINS TIGHT WHILE LUXURY MARKET SOFTENS

As we’ve seen in the past, it’s become a tale of two sectors.

The low-end of the market remains highly competitive as buyers compete for affordable housing. A lack of new construction during the last recession led to an undersupply of starter homes. This trend continues—despite growing demand—due to a lack of skilled workers, rising land and material costs, and a slow permitting process in many areas.7

The result? There’s a shortage of homes for sale that Americans can actually afford to buy.

The luxury market, on the other hand, has softened. Economic uncertainty, changes to tax laws, and rising prices have slowed demand. Plus, to recoup their higher costs, builders flocked to this segment—causing an overabundance of supply in some areas.

“If you’re selling an entry level home, you’re probably still looking at a pretty competitive market in most places,” according to Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “But if you’re selling a more expensive home you probably have to adjust your expectations.”8

What does it mean for you?

Move-up buyers, you’re in luck! If you’re ready to trade in your starter home for something more luxurious, you may get the best of both sectors. We’re still witnessing strong demand for entry-level homes, giving sellers the upper hand. At the same time, buyers of high-end homes are finding a greater selection (and more negotiating power) than they’ve had in years.

INVESTORS ARE BUYING HOMES AT RECORD LEVELS

There’s one group that hasn’t been slowed down by lack of affordability or economic uncertainty: investors.

According to CoreLogic, investors are purchasing homes at a record pace. In 2018, the share of U.S. homes bought by investors reached 11.3%—the highest level since the company began tracking nearly 20 years ago.9

Notably, this increased activity wasn’t led by institutional investors, but instead by small and individual investors focused on the starter-home segment.7 Declining interest rates and an uncertain stock market has led investors to flock to real estate as they seek out greater stability and higher returns.

“With declining mortgage rates … they’re searching for a better return for their money,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.10

What does it mean for you?

If you’re looking for a way to “recession proof” your money, you might want to consider investing in real estate. People will always need a place to live, and (unlike the stock market) a rental property can provide a steady source of cash flow during uncertain economic times.

WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU

While national real estate numbers can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. As local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the issues most likely to impact sales and home values in your particular neighborhood.

If you have specific questions or would like more information about how market changes could affect you, contact us to schedule a free consultation. We’re here to help you navigate this shifting real estate landscape.

Sources:

  1. University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers – http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
  2. Freddie Mac – https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-drop-significantly?_ga=2.29332539.689041222.1565464527-928629548.1565464527
  3. CNN – https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/31/business/fed-rate-cut-july-meeting/index.html
  4. S&P Dow Jones Indices – https://us.spindices.com/documents/indexnews/announcements/20190730-965771/965771_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf?force_download=true
  5. National Association of Realtors – https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/metro-home-prices-increase-in-91-of-metro-areas-in-second-quarter-of-2019
  6. Forbes – https://www.forbes.com/sites/alyyale/2019/04/18/with-a-recession-looming-is-now-the-time-to-sell-your-home/#7d3a21665bce
  7. CNN – https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/09/economy/mortgages-home-buyers/index.html
  8. Forbes – https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2019/07/01/halfway-into-2019-how-is-the-housing-market-holding-up/#7e656e3ec5d8
  9. CoreLogic – https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/06/special-report-investor-home-buying.aspx
  10. Fox Business – https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/investors-snapping-up-homes-at-record-levels

Loans for foreign nationals coming back to south Florida

For as long as your Guru has been here in South Florida, lending to foreign nationals has been non-existent. Back in the day, I had one brilliant mortgage broker, Kathleen, in Chicago, who was able to originate loans for Canadians. By the time the market crashed and we moved to Florida, lenders quit offering mortgages to foreign nationals.

What’s a foreign national, by the way? Someone who is a citizen of a different country, and without a U.S. Social Security number.

Florida’s number one source of foreign buyers is Canada, with a close second and third from South and Central America. Buyers from those countries needed cash, or a mortgage from their home country, to buy here.

My lenders are able to lend with 30% down on single family homes (and fee-simple town houses) and with 35% down on condominiums. Conditions do apply to the condos, however.  These mortgages can be for a primary home, a part-time vacation home, or as a rental-investment.   Full time rental or part time vacation rental.

Notwithstanding the popularity of Florida with the snowbird set on a budget, this program is for mortgages larger than $200,000.   So many of the 55+ communities still won’t qualify as purchase prices are still under $100,000 in many.   But for a single family home, or a beach-front condo in most of Broward or Miami-Dade Counties this should open up a significant population to the marketplace.

 

What is the difference between a fee simple home and a condominium

Searching for town homes and row homes can be confusing to buyers with FHA or other low down payment mortgages

Low down payment buyers are often surprised to learn that a condominium might not be a good fit for their loan program. Single family homes are not always affordable in areas where buyers are looking, so looking for town-homes might work – if you can find the right one.  Some townhomes are just like single family homes as far as ownership is concerned; and others behave more like condominiums.  Learn about the differences in the video:

Mortgage interest rates don’t vary much between lenders like they can with credit cards or car loans

Mortgage interest is consistent among various lenders

A client asked me about shopping around for mortgage rates this week.  She thought that mortgages were similar to car loans or credit cards and that they could vary greatly depending on your credit score and credit blemishes.  In reality, mortgage interest rates among lenders are pretty similar.  However other features of the mortgage can change such as mortgage insurance, down payment and other terms.  Check out the full video:

Your home insurance will cost more in South Florida than your lender estimate

I love it when a blog post writes itself.   This was a conversation I had with clients who were seeking insurance on their new home in anticipation of closing in a few weeks.Creative real estate security, home protection and insurance business concept: residential house cottage floating in blue sea water ocean in red umbrella parasol

Hey Bob, you can get back to me tomorrow, no rush whatsoever. I just realized the quote you sent me is 2000 higher than what my mortgage broker factored in. So that will make my mortgage about $170 more per month and I don’t want that obviously. Do I have any options and if I do what do you think is best?

Yeah – about that…

Your mortgage broker should have known.

Most mortgage brokers in the country use an estimate of what your home owner insurance will be of around 1% of purchase price.   Per year.   Divided by 12 of course to get your monthly cost.  So I could have forgiven a national mortgage broker for doing it that way.

But your mortgage broker is local.    She should have known better but perhaps I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt because her company is a national company and maybe their system for generating Good Faith Estimates won’t let her change the number.

But alas we live in hurricane country.   And we picked an old house without any hurricane protection.   (Which was sorta given considering our price range.).   But yeah – this is what home insurance costs down here.   It’s breathtaking.

I’ll send your info to another insurance broker and see if he can come up with a better quote/policy but it won’t be much better – like the best I would wager is like $500 less.

I think we went over this once – but of course we went over a bewildering amount of info along the way.    I usually coach my clients to plan for 2% as the cost of insurance rather than the piddly little 1% estimate.    Better safe than sorry.

What if i was to pay the amount up front? Could i do that? Like for the whole year?

Oh no – wait for it…..

YOU ARE!   Twice!

You’ll be paying for a year of insurance up front at closing.   AND you will be paying monthly for it.   Because you have to pay a year up front and then escrow enough money to pay it again next year.     It will be required by your mortgage company.     If you made a HUGE down payment, the lender would let you pay your own.   But on a nearly-nothing down mortgage the lender wants to be absolutely positive that the bill gets paid every year.   So they escrow for it.    Taxes too.

Christ on the cross….ok, got it.

Changes to FHA Mortgages effective September 14, 2015

Loan Clip ArtThe FHA Mortgage program has some new and important changes that will certainly impact borrowers. Check out some of the major changes:

1. FHA will no longer allow student loans to be deferred. Lenders have to include a 2% payment in the debt-to-income calculation.

2. Only recorded land contracts can be done as a refinance – if they are not recorded, they must be done as a new purchase.

3. Water tests will be required if a house is on a private well.

4. Streamline refinances can ONLY be done without an appraisal.

5. New net tangible benefit for reduction in term.

6. Secured borrowed funds can only be secured by financial assets or other real estate owned – in other words, you can no longer take out a loan against a car, etc.

7. Sourcing donor’s ability to give gift funds is now an FHA requirement.

8. Only borrowers on the loan can be on the purchase contract and those will be the only parties allowed on title.  A non borrowing spouse may be added to title, but only at the title company’s discretion.

9. Appraisal updates to expired appraisals must be done before the appraisal actually expires to extend the expiration date of the appraisal.

10. Non occupant co-borrowers must be US citizens or have a principal residence in the US.

11. Business disclosure relationship statements must be submitted by Sellers, Realtors, Borrowers, Loan Officers, Processors, Underwriters, Appraisers.

12. Flood insurance must be the lesser of the appraiser’s replacement cost (less land value,) the loan amount, or the flood program’s maximum amount allowed.

 

 

Percentage of Distressed Sales in Miami and Broward Counties

For my friend John who asked me about how many homes in our marketplace are either short sales or foreclosures.   Our market is different than what’s happening nationwide, however our news is not all bad.   The percentage of distressed sales is still decreasing even here in Broward and Miami-Dade counties..

Nationally, distressed property sales represent 11% of sales

August2014-54

 

Here in Miami and Broward Counties (this graph represents Single Family Homes only. The figures for condo’s are similar.)

Distressed Miami Dade 2Q 2014

 

 

 

Mattress Money

Mattress Money and other funds used to purchase a home

With vigilant focus on the source of funds for closing mortgage loans, its important to know what’s acceptable.  Here’s what you need to know and what you will need to provide:

Mattress Money

Or any “cash on hand” is not acceptable.   All funds must be “seasoned,” which means your money needs to be in an institutional bank account (bank, credit union, brokerage, etc.)  You will need to provide all pages of up to three months of bank statements for proof that these funds are yours.

Gift Funds

Are okay with a signed “gift letter” (a form your lender should provide) and evidence of the donor’s ability (a statement showing sufficient funds.)  Later, your lender will need copies of the check, deposit slip, and account statement to show the transfer into your account.

Assets Being Sold

Such as a car, boat, collectible, or anything of value you are selling, require proof of ownership (such as registration or title) and evidence of value (blue book value or appraisal.)   After the sale, provide copies of the receipt and the check and deposit slip showing the transfer of funds into your account.

Other Examples

Include loans from employers or against retirement savings, grants, inheritances, proceeds of sale from other property, loan paybacks and winnings.   Be prepared to show the source of funds, evidence of transfer into your account, and any supporting documentation of value, terms, service provided, etc.

TIP

If you have time and want to minimize paperwork, consolidate all funds into one account at least two or three months before you anticipate closing on your new house.  Save any and all evidence of the transfer and deposits, and keep activity to a minimum.